Cumulative Incidence and Prognostic Value of Readmissions in Patients With Heart Failure: Data From a Large Cohort Study of Real Clinical Practice in St. Petersburg

Aim    To evaluate the cumulative incidence and prognostic value of rehospitalizations in patients with heart failure (HF) within one year after discharge.
Material and methods    The data of patients with HF hospitalized for the first time (code I50.x in the diagnosis) for the period from January 01, 2022 through February 13, 2024 were selected from the St. Petersburg Chronic Heart Failure Registry. Age and gender characteristics, comorbidities, risk of rehospitalization and death after discharge from the hospital depending on the number of rehospitalizations were analyzed. Descriptive statistics methods, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and the Fine and Gray competing risks model were used. P<0.001 was considered significant.
Results    The study included 43,143 patients with HF who were hospitalized for the first time. During a median observation time of 242 days, 6,395 (14.8%) patients were readmitted, most often once (78.4%). A greater number of rehospitalizations was typical for men, patients with HF of ischemic genesis, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, obstructive pulmonary diseases, and a history of COVID-19. The cumulative incidence of rehospitalizations for HF during 1, 3, 6, and 12 months was 3.2%, 7.0%, 10.8%, and 17.2%, respectively, taking into account the competing risk of death. With an increasing number of hospitalizations, the median time to the next hospitalization decreased, and the risk of readmission increased (p<0.001). The probability of death within a year of the index hospitalization was 14.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14.5%-15.3%). The all-cause death rate was 30, 44, and 54 cases per 100 patient-years for patients with one, two, and at least three readmissions vs. 19 cases per 100 patient-years for those without readmissions. Readmitted patients were characterized by an increased risk of death: the adjusted hazard ratios of death in patients with one, two, and at least three readmissions were 1.47 (95% CI: 1.36-1.59), 1.97 (95% CI: 1.69-2.30), and 2.24 (95% CI: 1.81-2.78), respectively.
Conclusion    In patients hospitalized with HF for the first time, the cumulative one-year HF readmission rate adjusted for the competing risk of death was 17.2%. Increased readmission rates were independently associated with increased odds of readmission and death.

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