Clinical usability of morning surge blood pressure for predicting future hypertension in a young population

Objective    Early diagnosis of hypertension (HT) is a critical issue for physicians. This study was conducted to determine if morning surge blood pressure (MSBP) could be used to predict future HT. The study also examined which demographic data in a regression model might help to detect future HT without any invasive procedure.
Material and methods    A young population between 18 and 40 yrs of age was included in the study. MSBP and demographic data were used to determine an optimal model for predicting future HT by using Bayesian information criteria and binary logistic regression.
Results    1321 patients with 24 hr ambulatory blood pressure monitoring were included in this study. The odds ratio of 10 units of increase in diastolic MSBP was 1.173511 in the model, which indicates that a 10 mmHg increase in diastolic MSBP increases the odds of future HT in the patient by 17.4 %. The odds ratio of age was 1.096365, meaning that at each age above 18 yrs, the patients’ odds of future HT rise by 9.6 %. The odds ratios for gender (male) and previous HT were 1.656986 and 3.336759, respectively. The odds of future HT in males were 65 % higher than for females, and a history of HT implies that the odds of future HT were higher by 230 %.
Conclusion    Diastolic MSBP can be used to predict HT in young individuals. In addition, age, male gender, and previous HT add more predictive power to diastolic MSBP. This statistically significant, predictive model could be useful in lessening or preventing future HT.

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