Prognostic significance of arterial stiffness parameters in the identification of very high-risk patients

Over the past few decades, much attention has been paid to the study of the properties of the vascular wall and its role in predicting cardiovascular events. The testing of new indicators characterizing cardiovascular risk is being actively conducted. The study included 288 men aged 40 to 60 years (mean age 51.6 ± 6.2 years). Among the examined 133 people belonged to the category of very high cardiovascular risk (they suffered myocardial infarction for no more than 5 years before inclusion in the study), and 155 patients did not have a history of cardiovascular complications. Using the Fukuda denshi VS-1500 VaSera sphygmograph, a cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) and augmentation index (AI) were obtained. A model of multivariate logistic regression was constructed for the probability of assigning the patient to a group of very high risk, as well as ROC analysis. The study demonstrated the statistically significant role of CAVI in predicting the assignment of patients to a group of very high cardiovascular risk (after myocardial infarction). An increase in the odds ratio of assigning a patient to this group with an increase in CAVI per unit is 1.417. According to the results of ROC analysis, the prognostic role of CAVI (AUC 0.70) is slightly inferior to age (AUC 0.75), but exceeds AI (AUC 0.641). The share of variability in the probability of classifying patients as a very high risk group from the influence of the studied factors is 31%. The overall quality of the predictive model can be rated as good (AUC = 0.77).

arterial stiffness, cardio-vascular risk, cardio-ankle vascular index, augmentation index

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