Prediction-Determining Outcomes and Their Predictors in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Receiving Multicomponent Antithrombotic Therapy in Real Clinical Practice

Aim      Searching for clinical, angiographic, and biochemical predictors of cardiovascular complications (CVC) and hemorrhagic complications in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving a multicomponent antithrombotic therapy (MAT) for an elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and AF who require MAT for PCI are at a high risk of thrombotic complications (stroke, systemic embolism, coronary events) and hemorrhage. This warrants searching for new risk factors determining prediction of the outcome.

Materials and methods This study included 207 patients (146 males aged 70.1±8.3 years) with IHD and AF who received direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) as a part of their MAT therapy. Median duration of the follow-up was 12 [8.0; 12.0] months. The efficacy endpoint was a sum of CVCs combining cardiovascular death, ischemic stroke, venous thromboembolic complications, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and requirement for an unscheduled PCI. “Coronary events”, including ACS and requirement for an unscheduled PCI were analyzed separately. The safety endpoint was BARC type 2-5 bleeding. Upon admission, biomarkers (growth-differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), D-dimer, thrombin-activated fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1)) were measured for all patients. Searching for prognostically significant indexes was performed with the Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results Incidence of all CVCs was 16.4 %. Independent predictors of CVC included the DOAC treatment at a reduced dose (odds ratio (OR) 2.5 at 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02-6.15; p=0.0454), GDF-15 >1191 pg /ml (OR 3.76 at 95 % CI, 1.26-11.18; p=0.0172), PAI-1 >13.2 U/ml (OR 2.67 at 95 % CI, 1.13-6,26; p=0.0245). Incidence of coronary complications was 9.2 %. Independent predictors of coronary complications included a SYNTAX index >26.5 (OR 4.5 at 95 % CI, 1.45-13.60; p=0.0090), PCI for chronic coronary occlusion (OR 3.21 at 95 % CI, 1.10-9.33; p=0.0326), a GDF-15 >1191 pg/ml (ОR 4.70 at 95 % CI, 1.32-16.81; p=0.0172). Incidence of BARC type 2-5 bleeding was 26.1 %. The only independent predictor for hemorrhage complications was the total PRECISE-DAPT score >30 (ОR 3.22; 95 % CI, 1.89-5.51; р<0.0001).

Conclusion      Three independent predictors of CVC were identified for patients with IHD and AF treated with MAT following an elective PCI: treatment with a reduced dose of DOAC, GDF-15 >1191 pg /ml, and PAI-1>13.2 U/ml. Independent predictors of coronary complications included a SYNTAX index >26.5, PCI for chronic coronary occlusion, and GDF-15 >1191 pg/ml. The factor associated with a risk of bleeding was the total PRECISE-DAPT score >30.

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